Ride the Rainbow

rainbowpick6

We’ve been a little behind in getting some posts up – sadly work and life have gotten in the way – but we’re back for the big Florida Derby Day card at Gulfstream today which includes a mandatory payout (so you don’t have to be the only winner like the logo says) in the Rainbow-6. The carryover entering the day is over $4.7 million and the pool could well exceed $20 million.

Let’s take a look at the sequence.

Race 9 – The opener is a turf route for three year olds and we’re going to use the favorite, #7 Art Collection (9-5) but only defensively. He is first time Scooter Dickey after running third on debut for Chad Brown. Our top two are the two inside runners, #1 Wisely (5-1) and #2 Rhode Island (6-1) for Mark Hennig and Shug McGaughey respectively. Both trainers are better with second timers and both horses come out of a race where they were hurt by a very slow pace.

A – 1, 2
B – 7
C – none

Race 10 – This allowance race is tricky. If #9 Outwork (3-1) comes back strong, like most of Todd Pletcher’s runners do at Gulfstream, then he’ll probably win. But it’s probably not quite that simple. #7 Ready For Rye (9-2) has enough races that are good enough and his Laurel race last time, while he did not run well, was a pretty good field. #8 Realm (6-1) could jump up in his second start off the bench but he always seems to find some problem. We’ll throw in the two inside runners, #1 Sweetontheladies (15-1) and #2 Richard the Great (12-1) who drop out of the Gulfstream sprint and could pick up some late pieces.

A – 7, 9
B – none
C – 1, 2, 8

Race 11 – The G3 Honey Fox is a very interesting race. #10 On Leave (3-1) is the horse to beat but didn’t draw that well. #2 Lull (5-2) is one we’re going to oppose – she’s a little slow and is likely prepping for later. #3 Stormy Victoria (4-1) can win but she was set up by a fast pace last time. The horse we like the most is #6 Grizzel (10-1) who was really hurt by the slow pace set by #4 Team of Teams (8-1) last time though this is a tougher field.

A – 3, 6, 10
B – none
C – none

Race 12 – Most will spread in the 11-horse Gulfstream Oaks, but we are going to lean on #4 Cache (8-1) for Mark Hennig. She should appreciate stretching out and was in some traffic last time in the one-turn Davona Dale. That winner, Fly So High, is tougher than most of these have faced and she’ll get a good trip up close to the pace.

A – 4
B – none
C – 5

Race 13 – This is the G2 Pan American going 12 furlongs on the grass. #8 Sadler’s Joy (2-1) is obvious and always fires. He likes Gulfstream and the 12 furlong distance, plus he ran huge last time off the layoff running down a loose on the lead rival in the Mac Diarmida last time out. But we’re also using #7 Bigger Picture (6-1), who has fired every time except the Breeders Cup and trainer Mike Maker is tremendous in these turf marathons.

A – 7, 8
B – none
C – none

Race 14 – This is the G1 Florida Derby. #8 Audible (9-5) heads the field, and we’re going to use him after he buried the Holy Bull field eight weeks ago. He’s been pointing for this race ever since for Todd Pletcher, but there are a few alternatives. #7 Hofburg (20-1) was a horse we liked last time and he ran well to win going 8.5 furlongs from post 11 on the Fountain of Youth card. He should only improve second off the bench and could get some pace. #6 Catholic Boy (7-2) is a tricky one. His return race was pretty good, albeit against probably a weaker group. That said, Flameaway came back to run well at Tampa and he did control the Davis in which he beat Catholic Boy. We’ll toss in #5 Storm Runner (20-1) who will be a huge price and had a no-chance trip last time. We’re against both #1 Strike Power (4-1) who we think wants shorter and #4 Promises Fulfilled (3-1) who had it his own way last time in the Fountain of Youth.

A – 6, 7, 8
B – none
C – 5

The whole matrix – 6A/5A1B/5A1C – is $62.40 (20-cent wager). Good luck!

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