Aqueduct All-Stakes Late Pick-4

Our last post of the day looks at the all-stakes late pick-4 at Aqueduct that finishes with the Gotham, a key Kentucky Derby prep race that came up pretty strong.

Let’s go through the sequence.

Race 7 (Stymie) – #3 Harlan Punch (3-1) won with a picture-perfect trip on Sunday and comes back on short rest to try here. While he’s been in good form and a mile is the perfect distance, he won’t get a better trip than Sunday (or ever) and he might have to run back to that race here. #5 Watershed (6-1) is our top pick. He didn’t like the slop last time and was hurt by being inside at Laurel two-back while turning back to a mile today. #6 Vulcan’s Forge (5-2) is a reliable late-runner for Todd Pletcher and gets back to a mile but could be overbet off a race in which he closed from behind a fast pace.

A – 5, 6
B – none
C – 3

Race 8 (Heavenly Prize) – #1 Divine Miss Grey (2-1) has been in great form and can handle any pace scenario. Plus, with the scratch of Bishop’s Pond, the pace up front should be a little slower than expected. We’re leaning on her but will back-up with #3 Highway Star (3-1) who has some back races though her form tailed off last year. #7 Holiday Disguise (7-2) is hurt by the scratch of Bishop’s Pond but is very talented and should improve in her second start off a long layoff.

A – 1
B – none
C – 3, 7

Race 9 (Tom Fool) – #1 Green Gratto (20-1) has been embroiled in some fast paces lately and meets his easiest pace scenario in some time. He’s popped at big prices before and will be a huge price. #4 Threefiveindia (5-1) might be a touch below but also might have been too close to a fast pace last time and he’ll get the jump on the late runners. #5 Skyler’s Scramjet (9-2) might not have liked the mud last time despite winning and has been in great form for Michelle Nevin. We’ll also use #10 Spartiatis (15-1) who goes out as a big price for Rudy Rodriguez and is drawn well on the outside.

A – 1, 4, 5
B – 10
C – none

Race 10 (Gotham) – You can see the Gotham write-up here. We’re using Free Drop Billy and Enticed as A horses and Firenze Fire as a B.

A – 6, 9
B – 5
C – none

The Play: We’ll play the 4A ticket for $1.50, the 3A/1B ticket for $1, and the 2A/2B and 3A/1C ticket for 50-cents. The total play is $56.

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