Gulfstream Park Saturday Late Pick-5

GulfstreamPark-logo-final_newGulfstream has a very good late pick-5 sequence on Friday that includes four stakes races capped by the G2 Holy Bull.

Let’s take a look at the sequence.

Race 8 – It’s tricky to make out tickets in a race where a lot of the key runners figure to be first-time starters, but we’ll give it a shot here. Obviously, the Todd Pletcher-trained #1 Dream Friend (7-2) is the logical favorite for his debut, though he did draw the inside. Mark Hennig has sent out some solid debut runners of late and #3 Wisely (4-1), a son of Candy Ride that has some solid workouts, could be a runner. #4 Brasstown (8-1) gets Javier Castellano and is half to one runner, a six-figure dirt earner. The dam was also a solid dirt horse. The horse, however, has only been with Reade Baker for a short time, showing one local work after previously working at Santa Anita. Jim Bond and Ian Wilkes have some firsters, but their horses usually need a race. #10 Machismo (3-1) was 4-5 for Todd Pletcher on debut and was wide off a gold rail in a good race (Sporting Chance won the Hopeful out of that race) and then after being purchased privately and turned over to Anthony Quartorolo, ran into Pletcher’s Magnum Moon who ran a 95 Beyer on debut.

A – 1, 10
B – 3
C – 4

Race 9 – This is an interesting race where a few horses have been aided by being a part of very slow paces. There should be a fast pace in this race, which should suit #1 Tipsy Kitten (5-1), drawn perfectly inside for David Fawkes and Luis Saez. #7 Croninthebarbarian (8-1) hasn’t run in 53 weeks but would win with a repeat of his last. However, George Weaver is 3-50 on 180+ day layoffs in turf routes (DRF Formulator). We’re using #3 Convivial (15-1), out of the stakes-winning Social Queen, who won on debut at Monmouth in the summer. This is a much tougher field than he’s faced but he’s only started three times, has room to improve, and you can toss his last race where he was on the lead going 10 furlongs. He’ll be back off the expected fast pace today. #4 Convict Pike (12-1) was carried out on the first turn of his last race, is another that could get some pace, and gets Javier Castellano today. Of the speeds, we prefer #9 Krampus (4-1), who beat a decent field in New York last time and are not especially confident he can sit and finish. This race is wide open.

A – 1, 7
B – 3, 4
C – 6, 9

Race 10 – The G3 Forward Gal is headed by #7 Miss Mo Mentum (9-5), the easy winner of the sloppy-track Hut Hut last time out. Her previous win was in an off-the-turf race and she’s not markedly faster than her rivals. #4 Take Charge Paula (3-1) has to stretch out to seven furlongs but is probably the main speed. She is another who has run fine but isn’t markedly faster than her rivals. We’re going to take a shot with #8 My Miss Lilly (8-1) for Mark Hennig. She was very impressive in her debut where she broke slowly, rushed up to dispute the pace, was a little green in the lane but still drew off nicely. The race did come back slow, but a few of the runners in there had run faster both before and after that race. And even if you take the 67 Beyer at face value, she doesn’t have a lot of room to make up on the top contenders in here. Plus, she drew perfectly on the outside. We’ll toss in #3 Heavenhassmynikki (6-1), who overcame a slow pace in her last race.

A – 7, 8
B – 4
C – 3

Race 11 – #6 Untamed Domain (8-5) was an unlucky runner-up behind the perfect trip Mendelssohn in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. His best races win this and will lean on him. We’ll back-up with the Frankel son, #7 Gidu (3-1), who stretches out from sprints. We’ll toss in #1 Speed Franco (6-1) as a C. He did freak on softer turf like he gets today two-back, though we didn’t like the bunched finish of the Kitten’s Joy Stakes.

A – 6
B – 7
C – 1

Race 12Here’s our detailed Holy Bull write-up, and as noted there, we are going to lean on our top pick #7 Tiz Mischief (4-1) and #1 Enticed (3-1). The two were separated by a head in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time and prefer them to G1 winner Free Drop Billy in here.

A – 1, 7
B – none
C – none

The Play – We’ll play it for 5A, 4A/1B, 3A/2B, and 4A/1C for $82. Then we’ll play the all-A ticket one more time using only the #1 horse in Race 8 for an additional $4. Good luck!

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