The picture says “Be The Only Winner” but that’s not true today. It’s mandatory-pay day in the Rainbow-6, a bet which we would never play normally, but will play today when there’s $3.99 million in the pool. The mandatory-distribution runs in races 7-12 and the pool will easily reach $10-million and probably well more than that.
Let’s take a look at the sequence.
Race 7 – This race is about Mike Maker. #4 Ultimate Cause (3-1) goes second off the claim for Maker. Her first race in the barn was on January 12th and she was in position before getting totally blocked and stymied for the length of the stretch. #2 Hardly Mate (10-1) veered way out at the start of her last race, losing all chance. She then passed a few and ran pretty well in a race that was dominated up front. She probably has to take a little step forward from her best but ran much better than it appears on paper and will be a nice price. We’ll also use #9 Madame Uno (6-1) for David Fawkes. She has some tactical speed and Javier Castellano in a race that shouldn’t feature a blazing pace.
A – 2, 4, 9
B – none
C – none
Race 8 – This race lost a pace presence in #9 Crazy for Sofia, who was scratched. That should help #6 Nootka Sound (9-2), a Wesley Ward runner that makes her first start since Royal Ascot. #2 Honey Graeme (8-1) has some turf pedigree and her best race might have been her lone synthetic start. #1 Camila Princess (7-2) has won her last two and while she may be compromised by the pace, she’ll be right there if she gets back to her last race.
A – 1, 2, 6
B – none
C – none
Race 9 – There are four horses that can win this bottom-level maiden-claimer. Two are first-time starters and we’ll back-up with those. #7 Octopythius (5-1) is a C. But we prefer #9 Gran Red (9-2) for trainer Victor Barbosa, who can win with a FTS in a maiden-claimer. Our top pick, however, is #4 Dreaming of JoJo (7-2), who has the top pace figures in the field and drops to the bottom and turns back to a sprint. We’ll also use #2 Gitgo (6-1), who ran fine on debut at Tampa when breaking slowly and making a wide move.
A – 2, 4
B – 9
C – 7
Race 10 – This is where we are going to narrow things down a bit. #5 Loving Valentina (3-1) is first off the claim for Scooter Dickey and and to chase last time in a race dominated up front. We’ll use #2 First Distinction (2-1) as a C for underrated conditioner Saffie Joseph, but thought he was aided by the race shape last time out. We’re leaning on those two in the fourth leg of the sequence.
A – 5
B – none
C – 2
Race 11 – The first horse to make a decision on in this race is #2 Stormymeister (7-2), who ran an 82 Beyer on debut in September only to flop last time at 2-5. We are going to oppose. She set a very slow pace in that race and there is other speed in here. We’re against. I also don’t trust #4 Dance Rhythms (5-2) for Dale Romans, who set a very slow pace when beating a very suspect group of maiden-claimers last time. If #7 Miz Mayhem (9-2) can run back to some of her figures in the fall on dirt, she should get a nice trip and win here. That said, those figures were earned at Parx, and often-times horses don’t replicate their Parx figures elsewhere, so I’m dubious of her too. This brings is back to the rail with #1 Prospective Diva (12-1) as our top pick. She can pass a horse, which should bode well in this race, and faced the impressive Shug filly Fly So High last time out. We’re also using #3 Lady Freedom (8-1) who should be moving late, has been running in some stakes where she was badly overmatched, and has been freshened while making her second start for Jorge Abreu.
A – 1, 3, 7
B – 2, 4
C – none
Race 12 – The sequence closes with a brutal group of 14 $6,250 claimers going six furlongs, a hard-knocking group of veteran South Florida claimers. #3 Runaway Bull (15-1) ran a huge race last time moving early into a fast pace that collapsed, holding on pretty well for fifth. #12 Starship Appolo (9-2) chased and pressed that same fast pace, holding on pretty well. He’s drawn little better outside for today’s race. Those are our main two. #8 Paden (7-2) drops way down for Mike Maker and also turns back to six furlongs. I wish he was in better form but his races from the summer for Tom Amoss would win this. I also want to use #14 Bourne Country (10-1) for Jeremiah Englehart, whose horses have been running well at this meet.
A – 3, 12
B – none
C – 8, 14
The entire play, which you can view here, is $108 (winning combinations are 6A, 5A/1B, 4A/2B, and 5A/1C).