Today is the outstanding Pegasus World Cup card at Gulfstream Park. In this post, we will go through the card and find a few horses we’ll key off of in wagers. We’ll come back with another post looking at a key multi-race sequence.
Post time is at 11:30 am.
Gulfstream Race 1 – #8 Special Trip (6-1) is a horse that we’ve liked since her excellent debut on September 24th at Belmont. In that race, which granted was going six furlongs, she got totally stopped at the top of the lane while trying to rally. Her next start, when stretched out to a mile, was was a solid second to Data Dependent, subsequent 2nd place finisher in the G3 Jimmy Durante. Plus, Special Trip lures Irad Ortiz. #12 Smart Shot (9-2) is logical coming out of a fast race but is terribly drawn in post 12.
Gulfstream Race 3 (G3 La Prevoyante) – #3 Beauly (6-1) was compromised by a very slow pace set by Daring Duchess, who is back in this race, in the Via Borghese last time and two-back ran pretty well behind Grade 1 types in the Flower Bowl. She’s by Sea The Stars so 12 furlongs should be within the scope of Beauly. We had Daring Duchess last time, but I think there are a few others that could at least keep her honest up front early on today. #7 Apple Betty (7-5) is one of those and she’ll be favored. That said, she’s run once since August (an October win at Keeneland) and she’s no faster than Beauly’s best race.
Gulfstream Race 4 – The strength of this race is outside and in the four-post with Orb’s brother #4 Personal Time (5-1). Personal Time got a silly ride last time, making a huge premature, wide move around the far turn. He can obviously win (Shug McGaughey has a chance to have a nice day), but #9 Demolition (8-1) could get lost in the wagering for Ian Wilkes. He broke slowly on debut (and Wilkes’ runners almost always need a start). Then last time, he steadied early in a race dominated up front by Principe Guilherme, a well-regarded runner that would finish second in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.
Gulfstream Race 5 – We’re going to swing for the fences here with #8 Thy Kingdom Come (30-1) for Eddie Plesa. They ran him in a turf sprint on debut and he was outrun and never really sent down. It looked like a tune-up for a stretch out and that’s what this son of Animal Kingdom gets today. He won with the exact same move five years ago in the race after Orb won the Fountain of Youth. In a race where the favorite is coming off a loss at 6-5 in a state-bred Maiden Special Weight, we’re happy to take a shot.
Gulfstream Race 7 (G3 Fred Hooper) – #8 Tommy Macho (6-1) is the pick. Granted he might not be 6-1, but 4-1 would be fine. He likes Gulfstream and he prefers time between starts. He gets both of those things here as he makes his first start since the Kelso on February 23rd. I do have one concern that he did not run especially well in the Forego off a seven-week layoff but he was wide that day off a gold rail in a race won wire to wire.
Gulfstream Race 11 (South Beach) – #11 Celestine (5-2) hasn’t been the same horse since her big win in the Just a Game two years ago and she drew poorly. We’ll take a shot against her with #1 Westit (15-1) for Graham Motion. We usually don’t like to take these horses jumping up to face older runners for the first time, especially on grass, but she should get some pace to attack here and ran well last time against three year olds in the Tropical Park Oaks four weeks back. She ran OK against older horses in the Athenia back in October when imported for her US debut (for her European trainer).
Gulfstream Race 12 (G1 Pegasus) – If #10 Gun Runner (4-5) goes down, I think it will be to #5 Collected (8-1). Gun Runner beat him on the square at Del Mar in the Breeders Cup Classic, but Collected has reportedly been training well and had no chance in the San Antonio last time where he was inexplicably wrangled back off a walking pace. He also drew a lot better than Gun Runner and maybe that is enough to make the difference. There also might be enough pace for #6 Gunnevera to sneak onto the board. He ran a huge race in the Travers when closing wide behind West Coast, who wired the field. Then in the Classic, he spent the stretch on the bad rail. He’s run well at Gulfstream before. We’re not going to go crazy to try to beat Gun Runner but we’ll have a few tickets with Gunnevera and Collected as backups.