It’s a quiet week around the national racing scene, with big races to come at Aqueduct, Del Mar, and Churchill Downs over Thanksgiving weekend and then the Claiming Crown and opening at Gulfstream Park along with the Cigar Mile card at on December 2nd.
Our beloved Fordham Rams had a rough night in Jamaica on Friday (Carribbean Jamaica), and perhaps the Jamaica oval at Aqueduct will be kinder to us today.
Our last go-around yielded a few nice-priced winners and let’s look at a few spots today.
Aqueduct Race 5 – We’ve been following #7 Peculiar Sensation (10-1) since a very tough trip at Belmont on September 9th and bet him on September 30th where he was a solid third at 11-1. Last time out, in his October 20th race, he was racing inside when shuffled back around the far turn, got outside and ran on decently down the lane in a race that collapsed to the outside. His trouble inside on the turn ended any chance he had of winning, but he ran ok.
One of the attractive parts about this race is the favorite is likely to be #5 Discretionary Marq (7-2), who is a half to Discreet Marq and figures to be overbet. She’s been beaten at 3-5 and 6-5 and her win, two back at Belmont, was earned when setting a very slow pace. Yes, last time he was in behind, but it looked like he was clear with enough time and did not finish strong. #9 Mission Command (3-1) also figures to take money after an impressive win in his turf debut last time. But that race featured a very fast pace that fell apart and the runner-up, #10 Lucky Town (15-1) is a longshot in here. This is a much tougher spot.
The concern for Peculiar Sensation is there might be a ton of pace, which would benefit Discretionary Marq, but we’ll take a shot against him nonetheless, using Peculiar Sensation with Mission Command and #6 Psychic Energy (5-1) in exactas.
Update – #12 Canarsie Kid (12-1) drew in from the also-eligible list and should help insert additional pace into the race. That’s good news for Peculiar Sensation.
Aqueduct Race 6 – This is a fun race and we like #1 Mathematician (5-1), who makes his second career start for Mark Hennig. In his debut, he drew the outside and was part of a very fast pace that fell apart (with the exception of runner-up Congruity). Yes, Congruity came back and didn’t run all that well (though everyone in that race got dusted by the impressive Analyze It), but Mathmatician’s race was still good enough for a trainer whose runners often need a start.
Aqueduct Race 8 (Artie Schiller Stakes) – #5 Blacktype (3-1) is probably the horse to beat, but had back to back perfect trips pressing moderate paces in his last two wins. We prefer, of the favorites, #9 Delta Prince (5-2), who was wired by Heart to Heart on the inside-favoring turf late in the Saratoga meet. The downside is a poor post and he could get floated wide. One horse that did not draw poorly is #1 Night Prowler (5-1). We’ve liked him before and might overrate him, but he should get a good trip from this post. He was compromised by the slow pace last time and was only beaten a length by Blacktype and ran his best career Beyer figure at Aqueduct in this race last year (though he was beaten a length for second by Blacktype).