Saturday Top Play – You Know Too Can Upset at Laurel

There are some good races around the east coast today including at Laurel where they run several stakes races. We’ve found a 15-1 shot we like in Race 6, the Safely Kept Stakes for three year old fillies going seven furlongs.

Laurel, Race 6 – Safely Kept Stakes – This is not the first time we’ve liked You Know Too, as we wrote her up for the August 12th Monmouth Oaks, a race in which she did very little running (she came into that race off a tough-trip behind eventual Cotillion winner It Tiz Well in the Delaware Oaks). However, after rebounding to an easily Delaware allowance win, she ran pretty well in the nine furlong Grade 1 Spinster, tracking the pace, making a nice move after the eventual winner, Romantic Vision, and flattening out late against older rivals. Today, she turns back to seven furlongs and should get some pace to attack at a big price. #6 You Know Too (15-1) is our upset pick.

#13 Your Love (5-2) is the morning line favorite for trainer Chad Brown, but comes out a good trip win against a very weak field and figures to be overbet.

#11 Shimmering Aspen (3-1) has the best race in the field, a 97 Beyer, 5 1/2 length win in a stakes here in August. She was not good in the Charles Town Oaks last time at 6/5 but that’s a two-turn seven furlongs and a lot of horses don’t handle the West Virginia bullring. She’s come out of there with some snappy workouts, so we’ll give her another shot. #10 Ms Locust Point won the Gin Talking here on New Year’s Eve before setting a fast pace in a race that collapsed at Gulfstream on February 4th. She hasn’t been out since, but draws well and John Servis does well off long layoffs. #4 Dawn the Destroyer (6-1) improved since switching to Kiaran McLaughlin, though her three races for her new trainer all came over sloppy tracks. Still, her off-the-pace style could suit the track profile.

We’ll play You Know Too to win and play her in exactas and trifectas with the 4, 10, and 11, and a little bit of the 8 and 13.

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