As we reach the Juvenile, we reach the shortest-priced favorite in the entire Breeders Cup sequence in Bolt d’Oro, one we are not going to spend a lot of time trying to beat.
Audio – We previewed the Saturday races with Steve Falk.
Breeders Cup Juvenile
He may have drawn post 11 of 12, but Bolt d’Oro comes into the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, a track at which ie has already won twice, perhaps the most likely winner of all 13 Breeders Cup races.
The Mick Ruis trainee obliterated the FrontRunner field by 7 ¾ lengths last time out, earning a 100 Beyer, after a ¾ length win, though easier than that visually, in the Del Mar Futurity. None of the other runners appear in his league.
The only other horse to run even a 90 Beyer is Firenze Fire, who did so by capitalizing on a very fast pace in the one-turn mile Champagne at Belmont. He has reportedly been working very well for this race, but he had very good trips in his two stakes wins, especially the Champagne, and the play in this race might be to keep him out of exactas and trifectas as the possible second choice.
Two others from the Champagne are Hazit and Good Magic. The two squared off in a Saratoga maiden race on Travers day with Hazit setting a very slow pace on a good inside while Good Magic, bet to favoritism that day, had to press outside. Hazit was closer to the pace in the Champagne but Good Magic wasn’t too far off and finished better, though he was asked early on the turn. Of the two, we prefer Good Magic though he will be a shorter price.
Dale Romans sends out Free Drop Billy, easy winner of the Breeders Futurity, and Hollywood Star, runner-up to The Tabulator in the Iroquois. Of the Romans two, we prefer Free Drop Billy. Hollywood Star raced on a good rail in the Saratoga Special two-back and benefited from a very fast pace in the Iroquois (The Tabulator, while possibly overmatched here, was on that fast pace and ran pretty well in the context of that, weaker, race). Free Drop Billy, however, will have to run a lot faster today than he did last time, when he earned just a 79 Beyer, though he did win impressively. Bravazo, the second place finisher in the Breeders Futurity, ran third in the Street Sense on Sunday at Churchill and saw his Beyer figure drop four points.
Givemeaminit was a somewhat dull fifth in that Breeders Futurity, but was right behind Free Drop Billy in the Hopeful after being somewhat stuck inside coming into the stretch. Trainer Dallas Stewart has been known to pop with a longshot before.
Solomini was crushed by Bolt D’Oro last time, but did break his maiden over this track on Labor Day weekend.
We are not trying to beat Bolt d’Oro, and our play in the race will be to try to get Good Magic or Givemeaminit into the exacta behind him.
#11 Bolt d’Oro (9/5)
#6 Good Magic (8/1)
#4 Givemeaminit (20/1)
#5 Free Drop Billy (5/1)