Keeneland runs a very competitive version of the Valley View (G3) today. It’s an 8.5 furlong race for three year old fillies on the firm turf.
Valley View (G3) – This races features the top three runners from the Indiana Grand Stakes (from, you guessed it, Indiana Grand), last month. #1 Lovely Bernadette (5-1) got a nice trip just behind the pace and should get another here breaking from the inside and possessing good tactical speed. #5 I’m Betty G (10-1) is a speed. There’s not a ton of other speed in here, and the course has been good to speed. She’s a player. #8 Youngest Daughter (8-1) rallied late after some traffic at the top of the lane, but her best races seem a cut below. #7 Fault (6-1) didn’t run poorly pressing a moderate pace in the Sands Point against better horses – La Coronel (who won the QE II last week) and Uni – but was probably aided by that slow pace and she got a great inside/out trip to win the Pucker Up two starts back. Some will be attracted to Chad Brown’s #10 Dolce Lili (12-1), but she got a fast pace to attack in beating a weak field last time at Monmouth. Still, she is improving.
Our pick, however, is #6 Defiant Honor (10-1), a full sister to Recepta, who goes out for Jimmy Toner. Her four races this year make her look like she’s in an in/out pattern (she’d be in for this race), but I just think she’s had some tough trips in her bad races.
She debuted in June and ran a huge race on a fast pace to beat a next-out winner at Belmont. Then in the Lake George, she broke well and was inside and then weakened late. She probably should have been sent through in that race as she seems to like to press in the clear. Even so, she only relented late and that was a better field than this. Defiant Honor rebounded with a good win in the Riskaverse on August 24th running fast enough to win this race. Then last time, she was surprisingly rated by Nik Juarez in the Sands Point, which featured a slow pace. She was never given a chance to run and we’ll toss that race. Her best races are as good as anyone in here and she’ll be a great price.
We’ll play her to win and box in the exacta with 5-7-10.