The Violet Stakes (G3)

Seven older fillies & mares go postward in today’s 11th at Monmouth, the Grade 3 Violet Stakes.

The favorite is likely #2 Light Up Our World (5-2), who goes out for Arnaud Delacour. She was a solid fourth last time on the 4th of July at Parx against Fourstar Crook, winner of seven straight races for Chad Brown. That was a tougher field (in addition to the talented winner, Cambodia came out of this race to win at Del Mar and Thundering Sky would win a stakes race at Saratoga) than today’s assignment, but Light Up Our World didn’t do a ton of running in there, saving ground and angling out late with an overall good trip.

#8 Pricedtoperfection (3-1) comes out of an allowance race at Saratoga where she put in a belated rally behind a pretty strong pace. She can win but figures to be a short-ish price and will need a strong pace to attack.

The horse we want to bet is #4 Tricky Escape (6-1), which might not surprise you. We really liked her race here in the Eatontown on June 3rd, in which she was 4th with serious trouble to the excellent Grand Jete. We bet Tricky Escape in the Dick Memorial two back (write-up here) and Grand Jete should have won the Beverly D last week if not for a ton of late trouble (of course we had her). Tricky Escape ran fine in the Dick but 11 furlongs was too far and you can throw out her dirt race last time. The price should be fair and if she runs back to the Eatontown, Tricky Escape can upset the Violet at a square price.

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