Saturday at the Spa

A few quick spot plays for Saturday at Saratoga.

Race 2 – #3 Get the Facts (6-1) was green in his debut going 5.5 furlongs behind and impressive wire to wire winner on the opening Saturday of the meet and comes back in three weeks stretching out to seven furlongs for Mark Casse, whose barn is due to get going (44: 1-6-9). Experience, always valuable, is even moreso important in seven furlong races for these babies early in the year and he should move forward off his debut.

Adirondack Stakes (Race 4) – This 6.5 furlong test for 2-year old fillies features a couple of runners that have already won at the meet and one is our pick here – #8 Southhampton Way (5-1) for Horacio DePaz. These Sagamore connections have had a tremendous year and this horse is drawn perfectly outside to stalk the speed, the same way she won her debut on Opening Day. She showed some tenacity in that race, repelling a rival in the last furlong, and she’s well positioned to get a win her today.

Race 5 – This is a wide-open race and I’m not sure he can win but we’ll try to get #1 Husband’s Folly (30-1) into the mix. It’s a race where you have some shaky dropdowns, potential pace, and poorly drawn contenders, so why not take a shot with a horse that has a few races that put him in the mix, specifically his race on April 12th at Aqueduct.You can throw out his last two races, one going 11 furlongs – too far – and one on dirt. He has an inside post position too. We’ll use with Blarp, McIlroy, and Italian Charm.

Race 7 – This is the other division of Race 2, a 7-furlong race for juveniles. Our pick is #1 Wyatt’s Town (9-2) for Steve Asmussen. He drew the rail in his debut on June 22nd at Churchill Downs and was hemmed in for much of the stretch while the winner, Baffin, opened up to wire the field (Baffin was 4th in the Sanford after being part of a fast pace). Asmussen is typically better with his second time starters and again, we’ll prioritize experience in these seven furlong races.

Fourstardave (Race 10) – These one-mile races on the inner turf course tend to be speed favoring races and we’ll take a shot with #5 Sassy Little Lila (6-1), a filly facing the boys. She could have won the Just a Game last time and yes, she was aided by a moderate pace, but it took a tremendous effort from Antonoe to run her down. I also think that she ran well going a flat mile when she had been running 8.5 – 10 furlong races previously. Further, a one-turn mile on the Widener turf course at Belmont does not necessarily flatter her style the way a two-turn mile on the Saratoga inner-turf course tends to. She should be a good price in a race where some of the contenders have questions (Time Test has disappointed in his two US starts, World Approval has to turn all the way back to a mile, Disco Partner has to handle a two-turn mile here and is going to be a very short price).

Monmouth Oaks (Monmouth, Race 10) – Here’s a bonus pick from Monmouth Park today. We like #7 You Know Too (8-1) in the Monmouth Oaks. She is improving and makes her third start off the layoff today. Last time, in the Delaware Oaks, she was inside into the lane and maybe a little hesitant to get through in tight, slightly steadied, and finished fourth. Still, that was a solid effort for her first time going a route of ground, stretching out from 5.5 furlongs, and her second start off a nine month layoff. She can upset the field with a step forward and there is some pace for her to stalk in here.

Good luck!

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1 Response to Saturday at the Spa

  1. Pingback: Saturday Top Play – You Know Too Can Upset at Laurel | A Form & A Fedora

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