Sunday at the Spa

We got blanked on Saturday, though a few of our runners (Browse and Free Drop Billy) ran well, though at shorter prices than we expected.

Let’s take a look at a few spots on Sunday’s card.

Race 1 – This 2-year old turf route for juvenile fillies is the counterpart to Saturday’s race for colts, where Bill Mott just missed with a Harvey Clarke homebred at 10-1. He has another for the same connections here #3 You People (6-1). You People is by Lonhro, a good turf sire, and out of a dam that won two Grade 3s on turf. Mott did win with a few first time starting turf routers two years ago here and after the race on Saturday, be sure to pay attention to this one in the opener.

Race 5 – This is a two-other-than for older males that features a few droppers and the up-and-coming #1 The Big Fundamental (2-1), winner of the Belmont Day opener and the logical favorite. He has to go two-turns for the first time, however and this is a tougher field than he faced last time. Plus he’ll be a short price. #2 Royal Posse (5-2) loves Saratoga, where he is 5-7, but just seems way off form this year. #3 Securitiz (9-2) has some races from last year against tougher but his comeback race wasn’t that good, and he has five second against just two wins (and one of his wins was at 1-2 in a four-horse off-the-turf race). We’ll try #7 Doyouknowsomething (6-1). He didn’t like the slop last time and two-back, he was out-classed in the 12-furlong Brooklyn. His two-turn races at Aqueduct are pretty good and he might be the speed in this race (at least, he is if he’s ridden like he was over the winter). It’s possible he’s off form, but we’ll give him a pass for his last two starts and that gives him a shot to upset the field.

Race 8 – This NY-bred turf allowance is being run over the inner turf course and #5 Alabama Bound (12-1) has a good chance to outrun her odds on the lead under Luis Saez. Tom Bush, an excellent turf trainer, sends her out and while she’s been beaten by a few of today’s rivals, Alabama Bound has been in some tough, fast-paced races that have collapsed. Plus, she did win over this turf course last year. The biggest concern is stretchout sprinter #8 Puparee (20-1) under Kendrick Carmouche, who could make life tough for our selection, but Alabama Bound should be a big enough price to take a shot.

Race 9 – This turf sprint for fillies & mares changes a bit if #3 Animal Appeal (9-2) scratches to run in the stakes race on Monday, but there still are a few speed horses either way to help our pick, #5 Width (15-1). She’s turning back out of a 7-furlong race (to 5 1/2 furlongs today) from April where she didn’t run well, but has been freshened. She was always cut out to be pretty good, and won her debut on dirt at Saratoga going 5 1/2 furlongs two years ago. She has shown the ability to pass horses and is better on turf than dirt – she ran two good races behind Elysea’s World and Squeeze last year at Belmont. At this distance, she’ll have to stalk the pace, but should be able to do that and will be a big price. Trainer Christophe Clement is 12-50 with a $2.24 ROI off 61-180 day layoffs in turf sprints (6 furlongs or less) per DRF Formulator.

Race 10 – Just wanted to mention this race because it’s the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. #2 Abel Tasmen (8-5) was super in the Acorn and beat #7 Salty (5-2) going one-turn – Salty is better going one-turn and Abel Tasmen is better going the two-turns she sees today. If #1 Elate (5-1), who has been disappointing since her spectacular debut in November, can find her best, perhaps she can wire the field, but Abel Tasmen is going to be awfully tough to beat.

Good luck.

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