A Saturday Belmont Pick-4

Let’s look at the late Pick-4 today at Belmont, a sequence that we will start by leaning on a Chad Brown runner in the Forbidden Apple Stakes.

Race 8 – Forbidden Apple Stakes (3/up, 8 furlongs, turf) – #6 Offering Plan (4-1) will be the key to our play. He comes out of a win in the NY-bred Kingston on Memorial Day and loves Belmont Park (3 wins in 6 starts). With King Kressa and Cerise’s Prince on the outside, there should be at least a decent pace, and the Widener turf plays better for his late-running style. We’ll back up with #1 Get Jets (7-2), who has run very well in two turf starts this year. We’ll let #9 Disco Partner (5-2) beat us at a short price. He’s coming out of a perfect trip win in the 6-furlong Jaipur, has to stretch out to a mile, and deal with less than firm turf.

A – 6
B – 1
C- none

Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight (2yo, NY-breds, 6 furlongs, dirt) – Our top pick is #2 Mr. Pete (7-2), who broke very poorly in his debut and was very green in the lane while being bet to 7-2 behind a 7-5 Pletcher firster. #4 Collective Effort (2-1) is the other main use, pressing the pace and beating all but the well-bet Carlos Martin firster (who was 4-1 off a 15-1 morning line). We’ll toss in #5 Panama Ed (6-1), who didn’t show any speed but had a little late life last time out of the Mr. Pete race. He wasn’t bet at all in there but Javier Castellano takes the mount today for Chris Englehart.

A – 2, 4
B – none
C – 5

Race 10 – Allowance (F&M, 3/up, 7 furlongs, turf) – We’ll spread out a little more in the last two legs of the sequence. #6 Lover’s Key (7-2) comes out of a second place finish in the restricted Stallion Series race on June 25th, but was aided by a very slow pace in that race. #9 Spring Folly (5-2) exploded home to win a maiden race on June 23rd for Michael Dickinson. But we also want to us #8 Addictive (5-1) for Bill Mott, who is 11-50 with a $2.56 ROI (per DRF Formulator) going route to sprint on turf at NYRA. Our price use is #1 Electrified (12-1), who was rained off the grass last time and her three-back race in October was pretty good with traffic problems. Presumably something went wrong in the October 27th race where she was eased.

A – 8, 9
B – 1, 6
C – none

Race 11 – Maiden Special Weight (3/up, NY-breds, 8.5 furlongs, turf) – #8 Red Knight (5-2) just missed in an off-the-turf race on debut for Bill Mott and if he moves up on turf (and he should being half to Macagone), he’ll be tough. He will also benefit from what should be a pretty slow early pace. That slow pace will hurt #4 Appealing Briefs (3-1) who faced much tougher in Florida (like Snap Decision), but he doesn’t have any early speed. #9 Ides of Arch (8-1) kept trying between horses in a race won wire to wire last time. He was beaten by #6 Hoboe (6-1), who rallied well in that race for second and gets Castellano today. They’ve been trying to get #11 Zonic (6-1) on the turf and while he doesn’t have a ton of turf in the first family, the unraced dam is by Storm Cat and he has improved significantly of late. We won’t let him knock us out.

A – 8
B – 6, 9, 11
C – 4

BelmontP4 071517

The total play is $60. Good luck!

This entry was posted in Multi-Race Ticket Strategy, Stakes Preview and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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