Let’s take a shot at the late double today at Monmouth Park, which starts with the Grade 3 Red Bank Stakes and finishes with a state-bred Maiden Special Weight sprint.
Race 9 (Red Bank Stakes) – Grade 3, 8 furlongs, turf – Todd Pletcher’s #2 All Included (9-5) is the favorite, making his fourth start of the year. He comes out of a win in the Grade 3 Appleton at Gulfstream on April 1st in which he had a good trip rallying behind a solid pace. He should get a good trip today but won’t offer much value and we think he was probably a bit better in years past.
Our top pick is the improving #3 Synchrony (5-1) for Michael Stidham. He was a very wide second in the 12-horse Henry Clark while today’s rival #8 Irish Strait (6-1) saved ground the entire way en route to a fourth place finish (beaten just 3/4 of a length). Two-back, Synchrony beat Sir Dudley Digges at Fair Grounds, who won an allowance race on the Derby undercard at Churchill.
#4 Canthelpbelieving (9-2) was overmatched in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill last time but his best races are going longer than this mile distance. #5 Rose Brier (7-2) is a contender but has other speed to deal with.
Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight, NJ-breds, 6 furlongs, dirt – #1 Jersey Joe B (7-2) did little running in his debut 11 days ago for Greg Sacco but he was likely using that as a prep for this Jersey-bred race. He was fractious loading that day and today adds Lasix while facing Jersey-breds for the first time and switches to Paco Lopez. The favorite is #5 Valentino’s Day (2-1), first time for Jorge Navarro. Navarro is 8-21 with a $2.92 ROI on 120+ plus layoffs off trainer changes in dirt sprints (DRF Formulator) and has the best back races.
We’ll chalk it out in the finale but try to get Synchrony home in the opener:
Double – 3 / 1, 5