The Preakness Pick-5

Pick-5 takeout at Pimlico is just 12% so we’ll try to hit the Pick-5 that ends in the Preakness. You can read our analysis of the Preakness here.

Race 9 – Maryland Sprint (G3), 3/up, 6 furlongs, dirt – #5 Whitmore (9-5) might be the premier sprinter in the country at this point and shows up here as the horse to beat. #4 AP Indian (8-5) had a useful return in the Commonwealth going seven furlong last time and is very logical to move forward off that race. The 1-3 finishers ran 1-2 in the Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard. We’ll toss in #6 Holy Boss (8-1) as a C as he could potentially get loose, but it’s hard to see him in his current form holding off both of the top two.

A – 4, 5
B – none
C – 6

Race 10 – Gallorette (G3), F&M, 3/up, 8.5 furlongs, turf – The morning link favorite is #6 On Leave (2-1) for Shug McGaughey. She makes her first start since October and while she ran some big races last year, she might be vulnerable first off the layoff facing older horses for the first time. #7 Elysea’s World (5-2) is a deep closer but always puts in a good run and we’ve been fans. She was a close second against subsequent G1 winner Dickinson in her last two starts (though she might prefer nine furlongs). #2 Zipessa (9-2) ran some solid races last year and you can safely toss her 2017 debut in the Sheepshead Bay going too far on yielding turf. #10 Cambodia (8-1) had a very wide trip behind Danilovna (who is in here but we don’t like) last time. Her two previous races are both solid enough and she has a shot for Tom Proctor.

A – 2, 7
B – 10
C – 6

Race 11 – Sir Barton, 3 yo, 8.5 furlongs, dirt – #9 Time to Travel (7-2) comes out of the Lexington where he was a part of a fast pace which fell apart, making an early sweep to the lead on the far turn, opening up, only to be run down late. He ran a very good race, though might have to sit off a few rivals today. #6 Watch Me Whip (12-1) is a second time starter going sprint-to-route for Dale Romans off a debut win. That’s a 4-9 move for Romans with a $4.31 ROI with two of those four wins in stakes races (DRF Formulator). #2 Hedge Fund (9-5) ran fine in the Illinois Derby and was part of a fast pace that fell apart in the Sunland Derby but he’ll probably be overbet. #5 No Mo Dough (12-1) seems to be improving for Graham Motion after winning an allowance on the Derby undercard.

A – 2, 6, 9
B – none
C – 5

Race 12 – Dixie (G2), 3/up, 8.5 furlongs, turf – This race is typically wide open and this version is no different. #8 Catapult (10-1) – is improving for Chad Brown and while he might have to take another step forward, he certainly can, having only made eight career starts. He was wired last time by Macagone on that one’s preferred Aqueduct turf course with give in it. #4 Projected (3-1) was wired two-back by Heart to Heart, and last time, gutted out a win in a very tough allowance race, beating subsequent Turf Classic winner Divisidero. #2 World Approval scratched out of the Turf Classic after it rained to run here and has tactical speed. #7 Blacktype (4-1) will take some money but he’s benefitted from some solid paces and we’re not sure what kind of pace he gets today. #10 Ring Weekend (4-1) drew poorly but wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

A – 2, 4, 8
B – none
C –  10

Race 13 – Preakness (G1), 3 yo, 9.5 furlongs, dirt – As we noted here, we like Classic Empire and will use him as the lone-A horse. Always Dreaming, the Derby winner, and Cloud Computing are B horses.

A – 5
B – 2, 4
C – none

It’s a $111 play. Here’s the grid.

PimlicoP5052017

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